This CPG brand has been airing multiple creative copies on television. The key issue faced by the brand team was when to stop a creative copy and introduce a new copy to get increased response from the campaign.
The objective therefore of this exercise was to measure the copy wear out for each copy and recommend an effective strategy for creative portfolio deployment. An econometric model was carried out by RainMan by choosing relevant marketing variables. Various creative TARPs that were aired along with the copy characteristics (quantified) were modelled with sales in addition to normal marketing input variables. Estimated ad stock values were passed through the regression and the most significant ad stock (for the overall campaign during the analysis period) was picked up. The significant ad stock driver variable then was broken using Bayesian shrinkage estimation by passing through a Kalman filter algorithm. This dynamic ad stock contributor variable was then regressed with each copy characteristic variable to measure copy impact and media impact separately. Out of eighteen copy variants aired only four came as significant contributors to a sales lift. The best copy was wearing out at 12% per month-meaning that the impact was decaying by 12% every month whereas some other “significant” creative copy was wearing out at 18% per month.
The outcome of this exercise was an insight into effective creative portfolio management and implementation of optimum media weights as per the copy effectiveness and its wear out.
An Alco-Bev major wanted to understand the sizes of each of the categories of alcohol such as Whisky, Vodka and so on into the future for a plan strategy for a 5 year period.
The advantage of this methodology is that ROI of key digital channels can be compared and spends optimized in line with these insights, significantly improving overall efficiency.
The problem this CPG brand was faced with was a typical problem- Brand had presence across multiple connect points, paid media, owned media ( website, Facebook page etc) and earned media ( Twitter and other social mentions) but not knowing clearly what works across market clusters, and the interrelations between these connect points.